{"id":61700,"date":"2023-03-16T13:51:41","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T02:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=61700"},"modified":"2023-03-16T13:51:41","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T02:51:41","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>What happened in the US session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Swiss authorities confirmed that Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity standards required, and the SNB will act if needed. The bank&#8217;s shares faced pressure following the revelation of a significant flaw in financial reporting and the refusal of its most prominent backer to offer more funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest US data generally underperformed relative to the forecasted and previous data. This could negatively impact the USD, suggesting weaker inflationary pressures, a slowdown in consumer spending, and a decline in manufacturing activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Asian Session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amid the backing for Credit Suisse from the SNB, CHF\u2019s safe-haven status could face potential disruptions due to increasing market concerns surrounding bank failures. Gold will likely benefit from a shift away from the Swiss Franc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil will likely remain under pressure amid rising recession risks from the fallout in the US and Credit Suisse saga in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecasted number of Unemployment Claims for the period stands at 205K, slightly lower than the previous week&#8217;s figure of 211K. If the expectation holds, the US dollar may strengthen due to improved labour market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the assurance from the Swiss authorities and the Fed on their respective banking sectors, lingering concerns about further contagion risks are likely to support the safe-haven gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Employment Change<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Rate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Upcoming data releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics include Employment Change (forecasted 49.7K, previous -11.5K) and Unemployment Rate (forecasted 3.6%, previous 3.7%). More robust employment figures could strengthen the AUD, while disappointing data may put downward pressure on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GDP q\/q&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand GDP q\/q report showed a 0.6% contraction, lower than the -0.2% forecast and the previous 1.7% growth. The data may lead to a dovish\/less hawkish RBNZ monetary policy and reduced investor confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Core Machinery Orders m\/m is forecasted at 1.5% (prev. 1.6%). The Trade Balance is expected at -1.46T JPY (prev. -1.82T JPY). Revised Industrial Production m\/m is forecasted to remain at -4.6%. Positive outcomes may support JPY, while negative results could lead to depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 27 April 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Main Refinancing Rate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monetary Policy Statement<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ECB Press Conference<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB will likely raise the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.50%, up from the previous 3.00%. However, the latest debacles surrounding Credit Suisse and the US banking sector may lead to a lower-than-expected hike.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, any signs of dovishness in the Monetary Policy Statement could negatively impact the Euro&#8217;s value; the press conference following the rate announcement and policy statement will provide further insights into the ECB&#8217;s decision-making process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is set to release its latest economic forecasts, which are expected to provide critical insights into Switzerland&#8217;s economic outlook. A weaker outlook could result in further depreciation of the CHF amid increased volatility from the debacle surrounding Credit Suisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Office for Budget Responsibility projects no 2023 UK recession; inflation to drop from 10.7% (Q4 2022) to 2.9% by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 23 March 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian Wholesale Sales m\/m data is expected to show a positive growth of 3.0% (previous -0.8%). Meeting expectations could positively impact the CAD, indicating increased demand for Canadian goods and services.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual crude oil inventories for the current period are 1.6M barrels, higher than the forecasted 1.3M barrels but lower than the previous -1.7M barrels. This suggests a rise in inventories, possibly lowering demand and leading to a drop in oil prices.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in the US session? Swiss authorities confirmed that Credit [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":59489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61700"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61702,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61700\/revisions\/61702"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}