{"id":63567,"date":"2023-05-29T20:53:10","date_gmt":"2023-05-29T10:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=63567"},"modified":"2023-05-29T20:53:10","modified_gmt":"2023-05-29T10:53:10","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-29-may-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-29-may-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As expected, the DXY consolidated between 103.80 \u2013 104.30 amid a data-free session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bank holidays in Europe and the US will likely keep the DXY within the 50-pip range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to a bank holiday today, the price direction for the USD is likely to be influenced by upcoming data, particularly the CB Consumer Confidence index. This index&#8217;s forecasted and previous data are 99.1 and 101.3, respectively. If the actual index exceeds the forecasted figure, it may lead to a stronger USD. Conversely, the USD may weaken if it falls below the predicted figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1\/4 per cent. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses may weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee is committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee will adjust monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 14 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The higher-than-expected US Core PCE Price Index could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further, potentially strengthening the USD. As a result, the price of gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, may face downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event will affect the + Australian dollar today. As a result, the direction of the AUD&#8217;s price will depend on upcoming data releases. The forecasted Building Approvals m\/m figures suggest a growth rate of 2.3%, while the previous data showed a decline of 0.1%. If the actual data meets or exceeds the forecast, it could indicate a positive outlook for the Australian economy and increase the AUD&#8217;s value. Conversely, if the actual data falls short of the estimates, it may raise concerns and weaken the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Official Cash Rate was increased by 25 basis points to 3.85%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but remains high at 7%, and it may take some time to return to the target range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP is forecast to increase by 1.25% this year and around 2% over the year to mid-2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 6 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NZD should remain stable today due to no significant news. Attention now shifts to upcoming data releases, particularly the Building Consents m\/m, which rose by 7.0%. This report directly impacts NZD, reflecting future construction activity and economic health.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the OCR from 5.25% to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee believes that interest rates at a restrictive level for some time will bring inflation back within the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee voted by a majority of five to two to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rates must remain restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 12 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese yen is awaiting the release of the Unemployment Rate data, with a forecasted rate of 2.7%, slightly lower than the previous rate of 2.8%. If the actual rate meets or surpasses the forecast, it could strengthen the yen as it signifies a healthier job market and boosts confidence in the Japanese economy. However, if the actual Unemployment Rate exceeds the forecast and rises above 2.7%, concerns about the job market may weaken the yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 15 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to a bank holiday, today&#8217;s currency price direction for the EUR will likely be influenced by the upcoming Spanish Flash CPI y\/y data. The forecasted figure is 3.5%, indicating a potential decrease compared to the previous reading of 4.1%. If it aligns with or exceeds the forecasted 3.5%, the market&#8217;s reaction to this data could strengthen the EUR, while a lower-than-expected figure may weaken it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ECB has decided to raise the three key interest rates by 25 basis points as the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Renewed financial market tensions and Russia&#8217;s war against Ukraine remain significant economic downside risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The continued resilience of the labour market could lead to higher growth than anticipated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 15 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to a bank holiday in the country today, the price direction for the CHF is expected to be influenced by upcoming GDP q\/q data. The forecasted growth rate is 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement compared to the previous period, with no growth at 0.0%. If the actual growth surpasses the forecasted figure, it could strengthen the CHF, while lower-than-expected or stagnant growth may weaken the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raised policy rate to 1.5% to counter inflationary pressure and ensure price stability. The SNB may need to raise the policy rate further in the future<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB is providing liquidity assistance to Credit Suisse, and the crisis has been halted<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The new inflation forecast assumes a policy rate of 1.5% and puts average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage and real estate market vulnerabilities persist<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today&#8217;s UK bank holiday means domestic factors won&#8217;t directly impact the GBP, but upcoming data releases will. The previous BRC Shop Price Index y\/y stands at 8.8%, indicating significant inflation. The GBP&#8217;s future direction hinges on market expectations of the BoE\u2019s response to this inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The MPC of the BoE voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated projections show that CPI inflation is expected to decline slightly above 1% at the two and three-year horizons, below the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPI increased unexpectedly but is expected to fall sharply over the rest of the year due to lower energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The CAD&#8217;s price direction will rely on upcoming data releases and analysis of forecasted and previous data. The current account deficit for Canada stands at -9.9 billion, showing an improvement compared to the earlier data of -10.6 billion. This suggests a reduction in the outflow of funds from the country. Positive data may strengthen the CAD, while negative data could have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bank of Canada holds its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour markets remain tight with persistent price pressures, especially for services<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth in Q1 looks to be stronger than projected; to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 7 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices could continue to rise following a tentative debt ceiling deal between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The deal aims to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, potentially averting a default in the world&#8217;s largest economy and oil consumer. The agreement has garnered optimism from both the Democratic and Republican parties, and the rise in oil prices reflects renewed investor confidence and reduced uncertainty.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2023 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":62297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63567"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63567\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63568,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63567\/revisions\/63568"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}