{"id":63883,"date":"2023-06-07T16:38:39","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T06:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=63883"},"modified":"2023-06-07T16:38:39","modified_gmt":"2023-06-07T06:38:39","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-7-june-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-7-june-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 June 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 June 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia&#8217;s GDP growth for the quarter is lower than expected at 0.2%, compared to the forecast of 0.3% and the previous 0.6%. This weaker economic growth could adversely affect the AUD. Mixed Chinese trade balance figures, with a lower USD-denominated trade balance of 65.8B (against a forecast of 95.2B and previous 90.2B) and a higher CNY-denominated trade balance of 452B (against a projection of 676B and previous 618B), suggest fluctuating demand for Australian exports, leading to potential AUD volatility.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan&#8217;s slightly below-forecast leading indicators at 97.6% (forecasted 98.3%, previous 97.7%) may negatively impact the JPY.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The USD\/CAD pair gyrates 1.3400 ahead of the BoC interest rate announcement and rate statement. Any surprise from the Canadian central bank that leads to a hawkish perception by traders would see the Loonie test 1.3460 before the round figure resistance at 1.3500. Conversely, the pair may drop to 1.3420 in the event of perceived dovishness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming US Trade Balance data, forecasted at -75.8B, compared to the previous -64.2B, suggests an increasing trade deficit which might negatively impact the USD. Additionally, a decline in Consumer Credit from 26.5B to a forecasted 22.2B indicates weaker consumer borrowing. Both these factors, indicating reduced demand domestically and overseas, might lead to USD depreciation if the forecasts hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1\/4 per cent. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses may weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee is committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee will adjust monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 14 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The modest increase in the IBD\/TIPP Economic Optimism Index hints at some economic optimism and could support the USD, which could pressure gold prices. However, the slight rise in the index might not cause a significant rally in the USD, possibly limiting the negative impact on gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBA Gov Lowe Speaks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GDP q\/q<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBA Governor Lowe and Deputy Governor Bullock&#8217;s speeches may impact the Australian Dollar based on their insights into monetary policy. The Q\/Q GDP data, forecasted at 0.3% compared to the previous 0.5%, is also critical. A hawkish tone from the RBA and exceeding GDP expectations may bolster the AUD, while dovish remarks or a GDP slowdown may weaken it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The RBA increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but remains high at 7% and needs to return to the target range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 4 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand Dollar&#8217;s price direction may hinge on recent data due to a lack of significant news. The ANZ Commodity Prices rose by 0.3%, improving from a prior -1.7%, potentially providing upward momentum. However, the Global Dairy Trade Price Index declined by -0.9%, identical to the previous value, which might counterbalance gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the OCR from 5.25% to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee believes that interest rates at a restrictive level for some time will bring inflation back within the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee voted by a majority of five to two to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rates must remain restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 12 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecasted leading indicators data for the Japanese yen is 98.3%, while the previous data was 97.7%. This suggests a positive outlook for the JPY. A higher reading in leading indicators indicates a strong and growing Japanese economy, potentially attracting foreign investments and strengthening the value of the JPY.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 15 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasted figures show a growth of 0.7% for German Industrial Production, a trade deficit of -7.7B for the French Trade Balance, and a retail sales growth of 0.3% in Italy. Positive outcomes in these data releases, such as exceeding the forecasted figures, could boost confidence in the EUR, while adverse outcomes may hurt the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ECB has decided to raise the three key interest rates by 25 basis points as the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Renewed financial market tensions and Russia&#8217;s war against Ukraine remain significant economic downside risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The continued resilience of the labour market could lead to higher growth than anticipated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 15 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming economic indicators for Switzerland include the Unemployment Rate, forecasted to hold steady at 1.9%, and the Foreign Currency Reserves, last noted at CHF 732B. The CHF&#8217;s strength will likely persist if the unemployment rate matches expectations, showing job market stability. However, a higher rate could weaken the CHF, hinting at economic instability. Similarly, increasing foreign currency reserves could boost the CHF by showing a more robust crisis response capacity, while a decrease might depreciate it due to economic uncertainty concerns.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raised policy rate to 1.5% to counter inflationary pressure and ensure price stability. The SNB may need to raise the policy rate further in the future<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB is providing liquidity assistance to Credit Suisse, and the crisis has been halted<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The new inflation forecast assumes a policy rate of 1.5% and puts average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage and real estate market vulnerabilities persist<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Halifax House Price Index (HPI) m\/m for GBP is forecasted to increase by 0.2%, indicating a positive change in average house prices compared to the previous month&#8217;s decline of -0.3%. If the predicted data is realised, it could positively impact the GBP, signalling economic growth and stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The MPC of the BoE voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated projections show that CPI inflation is expected to decline slightly above 1% at the two and three-year horizons, below the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPI increased unexpectedly but is expected to fall sharply over the rest of the year due to lower energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Weak bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BOC Rate Statement<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overnight Rate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming data releases for the Canadian Dollar include the Labour Productivity, expected to rise to 0.1% from -0.5%, and the Trade Balance, forecasted to decrease to 0.5B from 1.0B. The Bank of Canada&#8217;s Overnight Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.50%. While a productivity improvement could support the CAD, the anticipated reduction in Trade Balance and the potentially ambiguous BOC Rate Statement might exert downward pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bank of Canada holds its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour markets remain tight with persistent price pressures, especially for services<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth in Q1 looks to be stronger than projected; to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 7 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to show a 1.2-million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories, lower than last week&#8217;s 4.5 million. This could suggest either stronger demand or lower production, possibly leading to a rise in oil prices.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 June 2023 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":62297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63883"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63883\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63906,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63883\/revisions\/63906"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}