{"id":64099,"date":"2023-06-21T16:58:14","date_gmt":"2023-06-21T06:58:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=64099"},"modified":"2023-06-21T16:58:14","modified_gmt":"2023-06-21T06:58:14","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-21-june-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-21-june-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 June 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 June 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting minutes revealed that the members agreed to maintain monetary easing measures. This decision will likely lead to a depreciation of the Japanese yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Melbourne Institute (MI) Leading Index for Australia showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.3% from the previous 0.0%. This contraction could see the AUD face short-term downward pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK CPI release will see the Cable break out of its 30-pip consolidation between 1.2740 to 1.2770. A higher-than-expected CPI y\/y release could see the pair trek higher to 1.2800, while a mild increase in consumer prices would have the GBP\/USD drop towards 1.2700.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed Chair Powell Testifies<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s upcoming testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee could shape U.S. monetary policy direction and influence interest rates. A weaker dollar will result if Powell suggests a possible monetary policy shift towards a lower Fed Funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The federal funds rate target range will be 5 to 5-1\/4 per cent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee will adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could hinder achieving its goals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Various factors will be considered, including labour market conditions, inflation pressures, inflation expectations, and international and financial developments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 26 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A potential dovish shift in the US monetary policy could create a bullish environment for gold as a weaker dollar often drives up the price of gold as investors seek it as a safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming MI Leading Index announcement, previously reported at a flat 0.0%, could significantly impact the Australian Dollar (AUD). A growth figure would likely strengthen the AUD, suggesting an expanding economy and boosting investor confidence. However, a contraction could indicate an economic slowdown and reduce the demand for the AUD.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The RBA increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but remains high at 7% and needs to return to the target range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 4 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are no significant news events today to drive the New Zealand Dollar&#8217;s (NZD) price direction. Traders will likely rely on the latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index data, which remained static at 0.0% compared to a previous -0.9%. Despite this stability suggesting a potential halt in the dairy market&#8217;s decline, the NZD&#8217;s future price movement may largely hinge on global economic trends and risk sentiment due to the absence of fresh domestic data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the OCR from 5.25% to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee believes that interest rates at a restrictive level for some time will bring inflation back within the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee voted by a majority of five to two to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rates must remain restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 12 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The release of the Bank of Japan&#8217;s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes provides insights into the central bank&#8217;s policy deliberations. If the minutes suggest a more hawkish stance, potentially tightening monetary policy, it can increase JPY&#8217;s value. Conversely, a dovish stance could weaken JPY.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yield curve control: Negative interest rate of -0.1% on policy-rate balances and purchase of Japanese government bonds to keep 10-year JGB yields around 0%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation is expected to decelerate temporarily but is projected to accelerate moderately later, supported by improvements in the output gap and inflation expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 27 July 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The German 30-year bond auction and the speech by German Buba President Nagel are expected to impact the EUR. The interest rate and bid-to-cover ratio will influence the demand for German bonds, potentially strengthening or weakening the EUR. Investors will also analyse President Nagel&#8217;s statements for insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, which could create volatility in the Euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ECB raised the three key interest rates by 25 basis points.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth projections have been slightly lowered.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Governing Council will ensure interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target and keep them at those levels as long as needed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rate decisions will be data-dependent, considering inflation outlook, economic data, underlying inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 27 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events will affect the Swiss Franc (CHF) today. As a result, the currency&#8217;s price direction is likely to be influenced by upcoming data releases. These releases include the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, the SNB Policy Rate (currently 1.50%), and the SNB Press Conference. Traders and investors closely follow these releases as they provide insights into the Swiss National Bank&#8217;s monetary policy decisions and outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raised policy rate to 1.5% to counter inflationary pressure and ensure price stability. The SNB may need to raise the policy rate further in the future<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB is providing liquidity assistance to Credit Suisse, and the crisis has been halted<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The new inflation forecast assumes a policy rate of 1.5% and puts average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage and real estate market vulnerabilities persist<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecasted CPI y\/y is 8.4%, slightly lower than the previous figure of 8.7%. If the actual data aligns with the forecast, it may positively affect GBP, signalling a lesser need for immediate monetary tightening. However, a significant deviation from the estimates or higher-than-expected figures could raise concerns about inflation and potentially weaken the value of GBP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The MPC of the BoE voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated projections show that CPI inflation is expected to decline slightly above 1% at the two and three-year horizons, below the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPI increased unexpectedly but is expected to fall sharply over the rest of the year due to lower energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast for Core Retail Sales m\/m is a growth of 0.5%, indicating a positive outlook for the retail sector. The Retail Sales m\/m estimates an increase of 0.4%, while the previous data showed a decline of -1.4%. The outcomes of these data releases will determine the impact on the CAD, with positive results potentially leading to an appreciation of the currency and negative consequences potentially causing depreciation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.75%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Canada&#8217;s economy was more substantial than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer, but concerns have increased about inflation staying above the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 12 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s decision to ease its lending rate by ten basis points (bps) could stimulate domestic economic activity and boost oil demand. However, a weaker yuan resulting from the rate cut may make oil imports more expensive for China, potentially reducing purchases and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 June 2023 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":62297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64099"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64099\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64109,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64099\/revisions\/64109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets-vnk.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}